2011 Commodity Prices

Preliminary estimates of Commodity Tips for May indicate that the index rose by 2.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 7.3 per cent in April (revised). The largest contributors to the rise in May were increases in the estimated export prices of coal and iron ore, reflecting the ongoing movement to higher contract prices in the June quarter. Gold prices also rose in monthly average terms, while crude oil prices, base metals prices and most rural commodity prices fell. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose by 1.5 per cent in May.

Over the past year, the index has risen by 29 per cent in SDR terms. Much of this rise has been due to increases in iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices.According with the appreciation of the exchange rate over the year, the index rose by 14 per cent in Australian dollar terms.

As indicated in previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices are being used for recent months, based on market information.

Overview of 2011 Commodity Price Upward Pressures and Trends

Crude oil just hit a two-year high and major fund investors continue to look favorably toward emerging markets and see a continued steady rise in a range of 2011 commodity prices. Energy prices in February of 2011 rose 28% from the previous year.

In 2011 Commodity prices are likely to continue to increase, led by oil, as the United States heads into the peak driving season of summer.